Sometimes when an insane rumor gets some semblance of legs, it’s interesting to trace back where it came from. This past week, as players began transferring from Texas A&M and the questions began about what was going on there, remarks on twitter began to bubble up about Kevin Sumlin’s job security. Then I saw a couple of OSU bloggers making comments like, “Purdue is going to luck into Sumlin, aren’t they?” And we were off. Purdue fans began getting excited and continue to be excited. And, honestly, I am kind of astonished at you guys. For real. I mean…. Are you insane? Fully, completely insane?

Oh, hi, Travis.

Let’s all calm ourselves. Do I really need to enumerate just how slim the chances are that Kevin Sumlin is going to be Purdue’s coach in 2017? Oh, okay, I’ll give you a few things to ponder.

First, Kevin Sumlin is the coach at Texas A&M and his “bad” seasons are 8-4. If A&M were dumb enough to bounce him, do you all really think his most enticing offer will be from Purdue? This, of course, assumes Purdue would be willing to go after him after firing Darrell Hazell and paying him his buyout. Which, remember, doesn’t drop each year until after Dec 31. So if Purdue bounced Hazell next year at the end of the season (or during it), they’re looking at a $4.6M buyout. Sumlin, for the record, makes…. Are you ready for this?

Five meeeeeelion dollars.

So are you guys really of the opinion that Purdue might pay something like $10M to have Sumlin for year one? Would Purdue pay Sumlin $5M even if they had no buyout to deal with? Or do you guys think Sumlin will be such a reclamation project that he’ll be willing to take less?

None of that makes sense. Kevin Sumlin is still a big name and a guy with tremendous upside. $5M makes him somewhat expensive but not to a Power 5 program looking to make a splash or turn things around quick. And if you think the jobs won’t be there, just look at the fact that Will Muschamp was just hired by South Carolina. That doofus was pretty terrible as a head coach at Florida and yet was one of the highest-paid assistants in the country and is now making $3M as HC of the Cocks. And that’s an uninspiring guy without any real history of success. Sumlin is a guy who ran the offense at Oklahoma on good Sooner teams and then made Houston nationally relevant. He also went 11-2 at A&M and, let’s face it, brought the Aggies back from mediocrity. I mean, hell, I don’t need to tell you all this – you probably know it, which is why people are excited about the concept of him walking the sidelines in Ross-Ade.

But again, I’ll tell you, if you think he’s going to go from this to this, you’re just kinda bonkers.

I understand that Kevin Sumlin went to Purdue and coached at Purdue. I understand that, yes, he’d be a fantastic guy for Purdue to have. But so many things would need to change, frankly, for that to happen, including Morgan Burke having an epiphany and changing his entire philosophy. Beyond that, you’ll need:

Sumlin to leave A&M, either by firing or because he wants to quit – the latter of which won’t happen, since get this…he owes the school $5 million if he quits before the end of the 2016 season, including any bowl games.
Hazell to be ousted.
Purdue to spend like they’ve never spent before. Purdue would need to spend $4.6M firing Hazell, $5M covering Sumlin’s buyout, plus whatever his salary would be. Yeah, that seems likely.
No other program to outbid Purdue.
Sumlin to want to come to a program where he’s at an immediate disadvantage in terms of facilities and talent in the conference. Sure, A&M isn’t the top of the SEC, but Purdue is proud of building a $60M athletic facility that is expressly just to get them back into the midpack area of facilities. Inspriing!

Hey, I’m sorry to cast a dark cloud over your happy Purdue football dreams, but it’s better you learn now that Santa Sumlin isn’t real. If Kevin Sumlin is Purdue’s football coach in 2017, I will make a sizable donation to the JPC and continue to do so for the foreseeable future. That will have meant that the Purdue philosophy that I fear we are stuck with forever is on its way out. And that’s something I’d love to see.

Sadly, thought, I live in the land of reality and I can assure you this: Kevin Sumlin isn’t coming to Purdue.