VB NCAAs Start Today: Boilers in Louisville vs Tennessee Friday
After an up-and-down season that turned out to be just about exactly what we should have expected, Purdue got an unexpected boost: a seed in the NCAA tournament.
It came with a catch, though. Starting with this season, the NCAA is seeding 8 teams per region, 32 in total, and seeding them by region, like they do for other non-basketball tournaments (College Cup, for example). The remaining teams are unseeded, I think mostly to minimize travel (which is great if the schools would have to pay for it and … not great if the NCAA would have to pay for it). The Boilers got the 8 seed in Louisville’s region, which seems just about right - they didn’t quite have a top-25 feel for a good bit of the conference season, and the 7s and 8s are those teams just outside the top 25 (in theory).
The downside, of course, is that you get the 1 seed in the second round. In this particular case, it might not have made much difference, since in the previous setup (with 16 national seeds) it wasn’t uncommon for the next 16 to be distributed somewhat regionally, and with Louisville, Pitt and Ohio State all falling in the 1-4 range this year (so 1-16 with last year’s setup), it’d probably be the same deal.
What that means is that Purdue will get 1 or 2 rematches with non-conference opponents; Tennessee for sure, and if they get past UT, hosts Louisville are next.
There’s a lot of VB involving Big Tenteen teams (although not as much as in some other seasons), so let’s get to it. Note that all the early-round matches this year are on ESPN+, which I know you already have for about 20 other leagues.
Louisville Region
8 Purdue v Tennessee (4 PM Friday)
1 Louisville v Samford (7 PM Friday)
winners play 6 PM Saturday
The SEC is slowly getting deeper as a conference; they don’t yet have everyone participating, but there are 13 teams now (what up, Vanderbilt?), and the middle-of-the-pack teams are rising in strength. Tennessee is one of these teams, going 11-7 in conference play to finish 4th, just ahead of Auburn and Arkansas. Their non-conference schedule was pretty rough, as it featured Pitt, Ohio State, Western Kentucky … and Purdue. That early-season matchup likely mirrors what we’ll see Friday - the Vols will play the Boilers tough, but the Good Gals should come out this one with a W. I’ll go with the same score as August’s match - 3-1 Purdue.
Louisville is coming off a Final Four appearance and looks every bit as strong as last year’s squad. They’ll sweep Samford with ease - 3-0 Louisville. Unfortunately, I think they’ll do the same to the Boilers - Purdue really hasn’t matched the caliber of play they showed in their early-season sweep of Minnesota, and they’ll need that level of play to take three sets in Louisville. 3-0 Cards.
2 Nebraska v Delaware State (8 PM Thursday)
7 Miami FL v Kansas (5:30 PM Thursday)
winners play 8 PM Friday
Nebraska showed rare vulnerability against top-10 teams this season, dropping out of the conference title race with three losses in their last five matches, one each to OSU, Minnesota and Wisconsin. Fortunately for them, as a 2 seed, none of those teams are in their pod in Lincoln. The Hornets will be the usual overmatched first-round opponent - 3-0 Nebraska.
Miami and Kansas will be an interesting match, as there’s an argument for reversing their positions. Miami finished well in the ACC but had just two top-40 wins, against Georgia Tech at home and at UNLV, so it’s possible they may not be as strong as, say, a Big Tenteen 7 seed might be. The Big Some is like the SEC in that not all schools have a VB team yet (OSU, wyd?), but the top of the conference is stronger than the SEC, at least until Texas leaves! Kansas has a bunch of quality losses and not many quality wins, but I think their strength of schedule gives them enough experience to pull the upset on a neutral court. 3-2 Kansas
Unfortunately, the Jayhawks aren’t strong enough to give Nebraska the same business. NU will stay on track to host the regional in case something happens to Louisville, like in the second round maybe. 3-1 Nebraska
Wisconsin Region
1 Wisconsin v Quinnipiac (8 PM Friday)
8 Washington v TCU (5:30 PM Friday)
winners play 7 PM Saturday
No, this isn’t the NCAA hockey tournament; Quinnipiac would likely be seeded much higher. Instead, since the Bobcats surprised Fairfield to win the Metro Atlantic tournament title, they get the team that ran off 18 straight wins in Big Tenteen conference play, which is ridiculous. Half those wins were sweeps; only 2 went to five sets. A team that went 19-1 in the strongest conference in the country and finished three games ahead of second place is not going to stumble against a team with a Massey rating in the 300s (300 exactly, to be fair). 3-0 Wisconsin
Washington fans may be arguing that the Huskies were underseeded, and Massey agrees, with UW at 18, which would be a 5 seed. They lost 5 of their last 9 in conference play, but 4 of those were against top-30 teams and the fifth was a five-set loss at #53 Arizona. TCU had a relatively weak non-con schedule and did not do well, losing four matches to teams outside the top 60. This is a very fortunate draw for Washington and I think they’ll make the most of it. 3-1 Washington
The second round, however, will not be fortunate. I don’t see Wisconsin losing at home again this year. Interestingly, the Badgers started their season with a 3-0 sweep at TCU. I think they’ll do the same here. 3-0 Wisconsin
4 Penn State v UMBC (7:30 PM Friday)
5 UCF v Yale (5:00 PM Friday)
winners play 6:30 PM Saturday
Penn State snuck in just under the wire and grabbed one of the last home-site seeds, and they’ll make the most of it here. UMBC will not put up much resistance in the first round. 3-0 Penn State
Central Florida-Yale should be an interesting match. The Knights nearly ran the table, with just one road loss to fellow tournament team Houston; they swept Kansas at Kansas and beat Miami in five at home. Aside from those matches, though, there hasn’t been much of a challenge for UCF, so it’s kind of hard to know exactly how good they are. Surprisingly, Yale may be a good test for them, as the Bulldogs had a remarkably similar run - just one Ivy League loss (at Princeton) and one non-con loss (at #37 Florida State in straight sets). Yale didn’t play anyone else in the top 60, and I think that will show, but don’t be surprised if they push UCF a bit more than you’d expect. 3-1 UCF
In theory, the second round would almost be a tossup on a neutral court, with Massey having UCF at 14 and Penn State at 15, but the two teams got there in very different ways. I think there’s more of a difference between the two, and the home crowd will help. 3-1 Penn State
Texas Region
2 Minnesota v Southeastern Louisiana (8 PM Friday)
7 Florida State v Northern Iowa (5:30 PM Friday)
winners play 8 PM Saturday
The Gophers had a fantastic weekend to finish the season, beating Ohio State in four sets and sweeping Nebraska, both matches on the road. The Southland champion Lions are not going to be much of a challenge on Friday. 3-0 Minnesota
Florida State seemingly got a very generous seed, finishing a distant fifth in the ACC and having no wins better than against #40 Miami FL (who they beat twice). I think they’re vulnerable, but I don’t think the Panthers are quite good enough to pull the upset. NIU had just one conference loss, but had a rough non-con opening weekend (losses to Toledo and Arizona State in Tempe), dropped three matches at Creighton’s invitational, and were swept by Iowa; only a 3-1 win at Iowa State prevented a 0 against quality opponents. I think that was their one good shot; FSU is lucky they got this draw. 3-2 Florida State
Minnesota will take care of business Saturday. 3-0 Minnesota
3 Ohio State v Tennessee State (7:30 Friday)
6 USC v High Point (5:00 Friday)
winners play 6 PM Saturday
Ha! I do get to talk about one of the newcomers. Like Wisconsin, Ohio State lost their second conference match (at Nebraska in five sets) and then won 15 straight. Unlike Wisconsin, OSU didn’t win another match, falling at Maryland and home to Indiana in puzzling fashion, then dropping four-set matches at home to Minnesota and Wisconsin. The Buckeyes have a chance to start turning things around against the Ohio Valley champions, who got a couple of breaks from tournament upsets and beat Southeast Missouri State to get the autobid. The Tigers opened their season home to Stanford (!) and were swept; they’ll close the season in similar fashion. 3-0 Ohio State
It’s ironic yet appropriate that the University of Southern California was sent to Columbus, given both schools’ odd insistence on their names. USC finished the season with a 3-1 over UCLA, matching their 3-1 win at UCLA to start conference play; it almost seemed like that was an elimination match, since the Bruins ended up missing out altogether, which seems rough for a team in Massey’s top 30. USC’s reward is the Big South champions, a team that wasn’t shy about playing top competition (they faced Wisconsin, Marquette, Texas, Houston, and Pitt in non-con play) but didn’t come away with a marquee win. They won’t get one here, either. 3-0 USC
The real question for Saturday is if OSU has fixed the problems that befell them in regular-season play. If not, the Trojans could easily send them home; if they can, they’ll have a shot at avenging that late-season loss to Minnesota, and remember, OSU swept Minnesota at Maturi Pavilion in October. I think they’ll get that shot, but their future conference opponents will make it closer than it should be. 3-2 Ohio State
