NCAA VB Tournament Preview: Purdue #6 Seed And Hosting
So the Boilers kept the 3-1 streak running through the end of the season, dispatching Michigan, Northwestern and Indiana before finally running out of gas against Nebraska, losing … 1-3.
But as expected, that did not affect their NCAA seeding. The Boilers took the 6 seed, a program best, and will be hosting Illinois State on Thursday and the winner of Marquette-Dayton on Friday if they advance. Sound familiar? It should, I’ll explain below.
Volleyball is similar to MBB/WBB in that the top 16 teams are seeded by strength; however, after that, teams are not seeded and are assigned mostly by geography, in order to keep travel costs down. That’s how Purdue gets two of the three teams they hosted in 2019. Each seeded team hosts first- and second-round matches this week; the highest remaining seed in each region will host regionals (Sweet 16 and Elite 8), and the Final Four is in a predetermined site like the other sports. This year, it’s in Columbus.
I’ll go through each region, highlighting Big Tenteen teams, posting start times for those matches, and making predictions.
Pitt Regional
Thursday/Friday, West Lafayette
4:30 PM Thursday - Marquette vs Dayton (ESPN+)
7:00 PM Thursday - Illinois State at 6 Purdue (ESPN+, live stats)
5:00 PM Friday - first-round winners (ESPN+)
Marquette joined Creighton at the top of the Big East, posting a 17-3 conference record and finishing just one game back of the Bluejays, with all three losses to Creighton. They started the season strong, beating Hawaii and Texas A&M in Honolulu, but were swept at home by Kentucky and Wisconsin and did not record another top-50 win the rest of the way. (The Big East, after these two, was not very good.)
Dayton had a perfect run through a weak Atlantic 10, sweeping 10 of 19 matches. Like Marquette, they were swept by Wisconsin (twice in Madison) and Kentucky, as well as by Michigan in Ann Arbor; they do not have a win higher than 68 (Cincinnati in Dayton).
Illinois State shared the Missouri Valley regular-season title with Loyola-Chicago. Interestingly, they were swept by both Marquette and Dayton in non-conference play, as well as by Illinois. They do not have a quality win. Purdue should make quick work of the Redbirds; as in 2019, they should have a bit more trouble with Marquette, but I would expect … a 3-1 win here. (What else do they do? lol)
Friday/Saturday, Pittsburgh
4:00 PM Friday - Towson vs Penn State (ESPN+)
7:00 PM Friday - UMBC at 3 Pitt (ESPN+)
7:00 PM Saturday - first-round winners (ESPN+ or ESPN+ or ESPN+)
Towson is the Colonial Athletic champion, finishing two games ahead of Elon and three ahead of James Madison. Their schedule was extremely soft, featuring only two matches against the top 100, both against #100 James Madison (they split on the road).
Penn State you already know if you’ve been following along. Bad luck for Pitt to draw a top-25 team in their subregional … never mind Towson. While the Nittany Lions are more vulnerable this year than in other seasons, of their 10 losses, two were at neutral sites and five more on the road, none to teams outside the top 25.
Pitt tied for second in the ACC, which in previous seasons might have been inauspicious, but this year, that conference has suddenly developed depth, with 6 teams in the top 40. Yes, the Panthers were three games back of Louisville … but nobody has beaten the Cardinals this year. Pitt lost twice to Louisville, once at home to Georgia Tech in five sets, and that was it. They added non-conference wins against Baylor and Tennessee in Knoxville, against Rice and Washington State at South Carolina, and against BYU at home.
Neither of the Maryland schools should pose any resistance at all, setting up a fantastic second-round match. As good as Pitt has been, their recent schedule has had two tough matches (Georgia Tech and Louisville) and a bunch of soft ones … but Penn State lost their tough matches, and they haven’t beaten a top-25 team since Minnesota on 10/22 (5 losses since). I wouldn’t be surprised to see an upset here, but I think PSU just isn’t good enough this season to make it happen … which is too bad for the Boilers, because if Pitt is out and Purdue survives, the Boilers would host the regional.
Friday/Saturday, Provo
6:00 PM Friday - Utah Valley vs Utah (ESPN+)
9:00 PM Friday - Boise State at 11 BYU (ESPN+)
9:00 PM Saturday - first-round winners (ESPN+)
BYU had a relatively weak schedule but did very well with it, including sweeps of Utah and Utah Valley in mid-September. They get a break with Boise State winning the Mountain West tournament; the Broncos have a 3-1 win over Utah but not much else, and the WAC wasn’t strong this year. Expect Utah and BYU to cruise, and I think the Utes will pull off the upset; they beat Washington in 5 less than a week after the BYU sweep, and they won in 5 at Nebraska as well. Utah will make up for that early meeting.
Thursday/Friday, Omaha
5:30 PM Thursday - Oregon vs Kansas (ESPN+)
8:00 PM Thursday - Mississippi at 14 Creighton (ESPN+)
8:00 PM Friday - first-round winners (ESPN+ or ESPN+, both are 8 PM)
Oregon is a bad draw for Creighton; the Ducks didn’t miss a seed by much, played Minnesota to five sets, and swept Penn State in September. Kansas is a somewhat puzzling inclusion, finishing a distant fourth in the nine-team Big 12 with an 8-8 conference record and 16-11 overall. You may remember the Jayhawks from that season-opening tournament in West Lafayette, where Loyola beat them in four and Purdue beat them in three. Mississippi is somewhat better, boasting a 3-1 win at Western Kentucky, but that’s about it. Creighton and Oregon will advance easily, and Oregon will pull off the upset in 5.
Louisville Regional
Friday/Saturday, Louisville
4:00 PM Friday - Ball State vs Michigan (ESPN+)
7:00 PM Friday - UIC at 1 Louisville (ESPN+)
6:00 PM Saturday - first-round winners (ESPN+ or ESPN+)
UIC finished in a three-way tie for the Horizon title and won the conference tournament, good for them but bad for the Horizon, as they will get smoked here. Ball State looks dangerous - they lost their MAC opener at Kent, then ran off 19 straight wins - but they played a soft schedule and don’t have a win better than 75 (Northern Kentucky). Michigan should advance easily, but they aren’t the ones to put a stop to the Louisville machine, as the Cardinals will sweep and advance.
Friday/Saturday, Columbus
5:00 PM Friday - North Carolina vs Tennessee (ESPN+)
7:00 PM Friday - Howard at 9 Ohio State (ESPN+)
6:00 PM Saturday - first-round winners (ESPN+ or ESPN+)
Not sure they can play two hours after the last match starts, some of these times are odd. North Carolina lost all their good conference matches but did win 3-2 in Ann Arbor; Tennessee has home wins over Texas Tech and Baylor, but lost their good conference matches too. Howard does as well as an extremely underfunded school in an extremely underfunded conference can (think of how much money can go to these schools once the NCAA isn’t around to siphon it off). Ohio State will cruise, winning 3-0 and 3-0, with Tennessee prevailing over the Tar Heels in 5 before the OSU sweep.
Thursday/Friday, Gainesville
4:30 PM Thursday - Miami FL vs South Alabama (ESPN+)
7:00 PM Thursday - Florida A&M at 16 Florida (ESPN+)
7:00 PM Friday - first-round winners (ESPN+)
More than a few have suggested that Miami and not Florida should have been seeded; the Hurricanes tied Pitt for second, with two wins over North Carolina and one over Notre Dame. South Alabama played very well in the Sun Belt, but that’s not good enough to get it done against a good ACC team. Florida A&M rolled through the SWAC and won a thrilling five-set match to get the conference title, but they too are underfunded (they were swept by South Alabama in their season opener). Sweeps by the power-conference teams will set up a “let’s prove the selection committee wrong” matchup, which Miami will take in four sets.
Friday/Saturday, Atlanta
4:30 PM Friday - Western Kentucky vs South Carolina (ESPN+)
7:00 PM Friday - The Citadel at 8 Georgia Tech (ESPN+)
7:00 PM Saturday - first-round winners (ESPN+ or ESPN+ or ESPN+)
Western Kentucky was unbeaten in Conference USA, although it’s large enough they didn’t play most teams twice (Rice and UTEP only played them in the conference tournament), and while they have wins over Notre Dame, Kansas and Loyola, they have that loss to Mississippi. The Hilltoppers are rated highly based more on theory than proof; South Carolina, on the other hand, got an at-large bid despite going 6-12 in conference play! Sorry, that’s ridiculous. Sure, they have a number of quality wins - UCF twice, Rice, Washington State, and Kentucky - but they have bad losses (Santa Clara, Alabama) and a ton of quality losses. On top of that, Georgia Tech is probably seeded too high - they do have some nice wins, including that win at Pitt, but I don’t think they’re a top-8 team. Western Kentucky should crush South Carolina, Georgia Tech will sweep the Southern Conference champions, and WKU will push Tech to 5 before losing.
Wisconsin Regional
Friday/Saturday, Madison
5:30 PM Friday - Texas Tech vs Florida Gulf Coast (ESPN+)
8:00 PM Friday - Colgate at 4 Wisconsin (ESPN+)
7:00 PM Saturday - first-round winners (ESPN+ or ESPN+ or ESPN+)
Texas Tech was 7-9 (sigh) in conference play, with a big win at Baylor and two wins at West Virginia. Florida Gulf Coast is a reasonably good team in a bad conference (Atlantic Sun) with no quality wins. Colgate isn’t the worst conference champion in the field, but they’re not very good. Wisconsin will blow through these two matches, probably facing Texas Tech after they squeak by FGCU in five.
Friday/Saturday, Minneapolis
5:30 PM Friday - Stanford vs Iowa State (ESPN+)
8:00 PM Friday - South Dakota at 12 Minnesota (ESPN+)
8:00 PM Saturday - first-round winners (ESPN+)
If you thought Pitt got a bad draw with Penn State, think of poor Minnesota, getting Stanford shipped all the way out here because there aren’t enough western seeded teams. The Cardinal might also have been a better seed than Florida and in fact beat the Gators in four to finish up August; Iowa State is an unimpressive Big 12 team. South Dakota tied for the title in a surprisingly good Summit League (comparatively speaking), but they’re not good enough to threaten Minnesota. Stanford is, and the Cardinal will send Minnesota packing in four after both teams sweep their first-round matches.
Thursday/Friday, Waco
5:30 PM Thursday - Northern Colorado vs Washington State (ESPN+)
8:00 PM Thursday - Texas A&M-Corpus Christi at 5 Baylor (ESPN+)
8:00 PM Friday - first-round winners (ESPN+ or ESPN+, both are 8 PM)
Northern Colorado isn’t bad at all, and ran through the Big Sky with relative ease; unfortunately for them, Washington State is much better. TAMU-CC has no quality wins and will not get one in the tournament. Baylor is very, very good - they gave Texas their only loss and beat Florida twice in Gainesville plus Minnesota in Madison and took Pitt to five sets in Knoxville. Baylor and WSU will advance with sweeps and Baylor moves on to Madison with a 3-1 win.
Friday/Saturday, Los Angeles
7:30 PM Friday - Pepperdine vs Central Florida (ESPN+)
10:00 PM Friday - Fairfield at 13 UCLA (ESPN+)
10:00 PM Saturday - first-round winners (ESPN+ or ESPN+)
So the thing is that the committee will not place conference opponents where they can meet prior to the Sweet 16, which is why Stanford and Oregon got sent farther east. Someone had to come west instead, so that means UCF and Fairfield. Pepperdine finished a distant second to BYU in the West Coast Conference, while UCF rolled through the AAC with just one conference loss - they do have non-con wins against Miami and Florida State. Neither of those teams will pose a problem for UCLA, nor will Fairfield. The Bruins won’t drop a set; UCF probably beats Pepperdine in 5 but that could go either way.
Texas Regional
Thursday/Friday, Austin
5:00 PM Thursday - San Diego vs Rice (ESPN+)
8:00 PM Thursday - Sacred Heart at 2 Texas (Longhorn)
9:00 PM Friday - first-round winners (Longhorn)
The top three seeds were never in doubt, as Texas made it to early November before dropping a match, and at that dropped just one. San Diego had a solid season in the WCC but finished poorly, dropping a four-set match at Pacific along with losses to fellow tournament teams Pepperdine and BYU. They did get big wins against UCLA and USC, but those were months ago. Rice is another in-between team - losses to good teams, wins against bad teams - so it’s hard to tell where their ceiling is. Sacred Heart is from the Northeast Conference. Texas advances 3-0 and 3-1, San Diego probably is a five-set winner in their opener but that’s basically a coin flip also.
Friday/Saturday, Lexington
5:00 PM Friday - West Virginia vs Illinois (ESPN+)
7:30 PM Friday - Southeast Missouri State at 7 Kentucky (ESPN+)
5:00 PM Saturday - first-round winners (ESPN+)
The defending champs dropped just one match in conference play, an upset at South Carolina (which may well have put them in the tournament), and lost to Louisville, Wisconsin, and Creighton in non-con play, the last in a surprising three sets at home. Other than that, they look a lot like last year’s champs. Southeast Missouri won the Ohio Valley Conference. West Virginia is another meh Big 12 team, although they did sweep Michigan in Annapolis in September. Illinois may have enough to beat the Mountaineers, but the Illini did struggle against quality competition - they have wins against Purdue, Penn State and Michigan, but that’s it. I think Big Tenteen beats Big Not12 in four, but Kentucky will sweep SE Missouri and beat Illinois in four.
Friday/Saturday, Lincoln
5:30 PM Friday - Florida State vs Kansas State (ESPN+)
8:00 PM Friday - Campbell at 10 Nebraska (ESPN+)
8:00 PM Saturday - first-round winners (ESPN+)
Florida State is slightly better than Kansas State, but neither of these teams will threaten Nebraska. Campbell got the Big South autobid by winning the tournament at home, beating Winthrop and High Point, and they should just be happy to be here. Nebraska advances 3-0, 3-0, and Florida State edges KSU in 5.
Friday/Saturday, Seattle
7:30 PM Friday - Hawai’i vs Mississippi State (ESPN+)
10:00 PM Friday - Brown at 15 Washington (ESPN+)
10:00 PM Saturday - first-round winners (ESPN+ or ESPN+)
Hawai’i was once an NCAA power, winning three of the first seven titles, but they haven’t won one since 1987 in Indianapolis. The Rainbow Wahine have dropped off as the sport has grown in other conferences, as has the Big West in general, and even being relatively close to home isn’t going to help them against Mississippi State, who finished 16-2 in SEC play and haven’t lost since falling to Kentucky in early October. Brown is pretty good as far as Ivy League teams go, but not good enough to challenge the Huskies: Washington in three and four, Mississippi State in three in their first-round match.
Regional and Final Four predictions
Pitt Regional: 3 Pitt over Oregon in four, 6 Purdue over Utah in four, Purdue over Pitt in five and yes I’m predicting the Boilers to make the Final Four.
Louisville Regional: 1 Louisville over Miami in three, 9 Ohio State over 8 Georgia Tech in four, Louisville over OSU in four.
Wisconsin Regional: 4 Wisconsin over 13 UCLA in four, 5 Baylor over Stanford in five, Wisconsin over Baylor in five.
Texas Regional: 2 Texas over 15 Washington in four, 10 Nebraska over 7 Kentucky in five, Texas over Nebraska in four.
Final Four: Louisville over Wisconsin in four, Texas over Purdue in five, Texas over Louisville in five. Sorry, Cardinals, it hurts the most to lose in the final but I think Texas can make it happen.
