Wolverines Smother Boilers 71-63, End Purdue's Faint NCAA Hopes

One of the biggest problems that some people have with analytics is that they don’t necessarily tell you what is happening; instead, they kind of tell you what is likely happening. Players with a high ORtg usually had solid offensive games, teams with a low AdjD usually are solid on defense, etc. But because these systems are looking at the sport as a whole, rather than individual players or teams, there will always be edge cases, situations where the performance of a team or a player doesn’t quite match what analytics might say.

Teamcast for Purdue from Torvik. The scores at or near 100 are why Torvik and kenpom like Purdue; the scores near or below 50 are why we’re so frustrated with this season.

Another problem is that in all team sports, the most important detail is a binary stat: wins and losses. (Ternary, with draws included, if you’re a soccer fan, or if you like college hockey.) To an extent, it doesn’t matter how well you play if you don’t win, or how poorly you play if you don’t lose. Analytics can say that a team with a good record and bad rating, like Vermont or Liberty, is either playing weaker competition or is due for a correction … but that doesn’t help if the correction doesn’t arrive in time. A team with a bad record and a good rating ought to also be due for a correction … or they might just be an average team that occasionally plays really, really well.

Purdue came into today’s game 24th in kenpom and 22nd in Torvik - the profile of a team that would surely be an NCAA Tournament team, and likely a reasonably high seed. But they were also 14-13, and OK, 9 of those losses were Q1-A losses, but they’d still lost 13 games. At some point, even if all your losses were tough losses, you have to start winning games to earn that spot. Unfortunately, the Boilers hadn’t had a win since they shut down Indiana on Bob Knight Is Such A Great Guy Day in Bloomington.

The Wolverines came in with wins in six of their last seven, the only loss in that stretch on the road in a game where an atrocious late-game call may literally have cost them the game. Under John Beilein, this was the time of year when Michigan would usually be putting everything together, making exactly the kind of late-season run Purdue so desperately needs, and while Juwan Howard isn’t running the same type of complex offense, something like that has happened this season, and Purdue got the business end of it. The Good Guys led 9-5 early, but Michigan cut the lead to one, then ran off 9 straight points, and that was pretty much that - the Boilers made it somewhat close late, but they simply weren’t hitting enough threes to actually threaten, and a series of FTs from Isaiah Livers iced the game.

In the first meeting, Trevion Williams had a career game, with 36 points and 20 boards; while he had another double-double today, it took many more possessions (just 8 for 20 from two), and while Sasha Stefanovic had some success (13 points, 3 of 3 from distance), nobody else could find the mark from anywhere. Similarly, Zavier Simpson was 8 for 8 inside the arc and had 9 assists in Ann Arbor, but was held scoreless today from the field and had “only” 6 assists … even so, the difference was that Simpson got plenty of help, primarily from Franz Wagner, who had a huge game: a career-high 22 points, 5 rebounds, 3 assists and just 1 turnover.

There were a few bright spots. Williams had some good possessions in the post. Evan Boudreaux had a fantastic game on the boards, pulling in a game-high 15. Stefanovic didn’t miss a three. (He only shot three, but whatever.) Other than that, though, the two teams played exactly like they looked coming into the game: Michigan is in tournament form, and Purdue is headed to the NIT.

There’s some solace to be found in this season, if you’re looking for it. The Boilers have had some spectacular games. There was going to be a significant dropoff at some point after losing 7 starters over the last two seasons. Painter is widely regarded as one of the better coaches in the country; there’s no reason to think that this is the beginning of the end. Trevion is one of the best post players in the conference as a sophomore, and bigs typically get their best improvement later in their careers. Officiating actually seems to be biased against the Boilers this year, and that kind of thing tends to trend back toward the mean. And the conference really is the strongest in the country this season, with only two teams clearly lacking quality (one with a brand-new coach - the team that Purdue lost to - and one with a wildly incompetent and strongly disliked coach). But right now, none of that seems to count for very much.

Up next: a return game with an Indiana team that somehow beat Iowa at home and Minnesota on the road. A win over the Good Guys might well be a job-saving win for Archie Miller. Let’s hope that long-time Knight supporter Dick Vitale goes home after that game disappointed in the result.