What Chance Does a Frog Have Vs a Locomotive? The TCU Predicto
We arrive at a truly baffling game to handicap, as Gary Patterson’s defense will face Jeff Brohm’s offense in prime time. We all expect those units to be key, so it’ll probably a be a 400 yard passing game from the Horned Frog offense or something that is the headline.
This game opened with Purdue a 1.5 point favorite and then expanded to 2 points depending on the sportsbook you looked at, which also baffled us. We know Purdue just mollywhomped an SEC program last weekend, so maybe that’s got something to do with it. But this weekend won’t be like blowing the admiral. Or whatever that was.
For really the first time in Brohm’s tenure, the harsh injury bug is biting hard. Lorenzo Neal hasn’t played a down yet, Elijah Sindelar may be concussed and the worst news of the season so far is Markus Bailey being out for the season with a knee injury. And to be truthful, we ache for the guy personally and not from a selfish, “our team isn’t as good now” perspective. Sure, this hurts Purdue a lot – but who cares about that? Let’s hope #21 gets better and plays on Sundays.
Back to this week, the questions are as follows:
1.) Who wins Saturday and by what score?
2.) Why?
3.) Do you think there is a play in the playbook for Rondale to throw the ball?
4.)In a decathlon being contested by Rondale Moore and Carsen Edwards, who would you pick to win and why?
Let’s see what the idiots have to say.
1.) Who wins Saturday and by what score?
Dave: Good Guys win, of course. 37-24. [D: J missed my update after the Bailey news so I added it here] Yes, Bailey is out for the season. Yes, Sindelar might not play at all (probably shouldn't since "slight concussion" sounds to me kind of like "mild vomiting"). But Purdue has had guys step up so far this season; it hasn't always worked, but there's no time like the present to find the next future NFL player in Old Gold and Black. (There is also a chance that the defense will drop significantly without Bailey to hold it in place; then again, they were, um, not great last year, so there's a counterargument that they've already hit their practical floor, and in any case I'm not sure TCU is a team likely to expose them the way later opponents might.)
Boilerdowd: TCU 33, Purdue 27
Aneesh: TCU comes in to Ross Ade and wins 21-17.
J Money: I’m not feeling wonderful with the trajectory of the week. TCU 27, Purdue 24.
Michael: Sad to say I think Purdue loses this one, 31-24.
2.) Why?
Dave: I'd like to tell you in detail, but since Bill Connelly was hired by ESPN (good for him), his advanced box scores and detailed analytics have become Property of the Mouse, never to be seen again. So I'm reduced to saying things like "TCU looks like they have a mediocre offense and a good defense, which isn't great when you're opening your I-A season on the road" and "QB is important in a Jeff Brohm offense but it still comes down to getting the ball to fast people in space and letting them do the work." In short, I'm two steps above Matt Millen. Three, if you count the fact that I've never run an NFL franchise into the ground and then held onto the job for years afterward just to prove it was my fault.
Boilerdowd: Injuries are mounting...the loss of Bailey coupled with McCann's loss...and potentially Sindelar not being available make this one feel like the margin for error is snug. TCU has the best defensive coach in the nation...Purdue has a great offensive mind, but a program that is still transitioning. TCU's experienced defense wins.
I can't overstate how important I think the loss of Bailey is though...three year starter and the QB of the defense...always in the right place and maybe the only LB who is serviceable in pass coverage.
Aneesh: Two years ago, TCU figured out offense, and it was terrifying. Lackluster QB play doomed an inconsistent offense in 2018, and it doesn't seem like they have too many more answers on that end this season (and Purdue fans have reason to believe in the defense, particularly in the front 7).
But TCU's defense is terrifying and smart and well-prepared, and you better believe Gary Patterson is looking forward to cracking Jeff Brohm's offense with his insane secondary alignments (4-2-5?). That offense might be limited if Sindelar sits out with a concussion (SOURCES: not an ideal thing to happen to the nation's leader in passing attempts, completions, yards, and touchdowns) the Boilermakers will line up behind the RS freshman Jack Plummer. While I'm sure the coaching staff has good things to say about Plummer, getting TCU in your first ever collegiate start is a tough break.
J Money: It’s funny. With the weapons on this offense, it’s hard to predict them “only” scoring 24 and losing a game to a team they could definitely beat. But the banged up offense, Sindelar being an unknown (even if he does play), and the defense being weakened just give me a bad feeling.
Michael: The areas where Purdue already had some questions aren’t getting that much better, and injuries are making things a lot worse. I'm not sure what we're going to see from this team, but a lot of 1A guys are getting beat up. I'm worried that they don't have the depth to overcome.
3.) Do you think there is a play in the playbook for Rondale to throw the ball?
Dave: There is a play in the playbook for literally anything. To be honest, a reverse pass is in playbooks even for coaches that don't go nearly as wild as Brohm does - toss to WR, QB* leaks into the flat or even runs a wheel route, WR hits a wide-open QB for a long gain. Typically these are better run when the WR in question is/was a QB at some level - defenses don't fall for this stuff like they did 30 years ago, so sometimes you need an accurate throw to hit the QB - but there are likely multiple plays that would involve a read option for Rondale himself.
*Unlike the NFL, the NCAA allows a QB who receives the snap under center to be an eligible receiver for that play
Boilerdowd: Yes...he actually can whip the ball a bit (watching in warmups)...I think that is a deep dig though...Sparks trickeration is well in front of that.
Aneesh: I believe in all things Rondale Moore, the best college football player in the country, so I'm going to say Brohm has something saved for when Purdue is up by 60 in the Bucket game.
(BTW, TCU has a truly great corner in #12 Jeff Gladney, watch that matchup against our #4.)
J Money: I absolutely do. And I think if he went to Coach Brohm and asked to do it, they’d do it in the next game. I feel like an end around that gets pitched to Rondale setting him up to throw would be amazing. Everyone would be scrambling to close on Moore who they would now assume is rushing the ball that there would surely be missed coverage assignments.
Michael: I bet Brohm has a play in the playbook for *me* to run the ball. So yes.
4.) In a decathlon being contested by Rondale Moore and Carsen Edwards, who would you pick to win and why?
Dave: I don't even know how to begin with this question. Rabbit says Rondale, but to be fair he wasn't paying attention during basketball season so it might be a good idea not to put too much weight on his opinion. Although he might also be referring to the fact that Carsen's contract almost certainly stipulates no athletic activity that might affect his ability to stay on the court, and I'm pretty sure the pole vault alone would qualify there.
Boilerdowd: I think Rondale's top end speed is better, but Edwards jumping ability is better. They're both ironmen who can play an entire game at a high rate of effort, so there's another tie. I think Moore is stronger (football demands it), but there are too many jumping events (hurdles, long jump, high jump)...so Boogie edges Moore out this time. Next olympics, Rondale wins.
Aneesh: Rondale wins 100M, 400M, long jump, 110M hurdles. Carsen wins shot put, high jump, discus, let's say 1500M. Things, as they always do, hinge on the pole vault and javelin. Picking a tie is lame, so I'll lean Carsen to win both because I'm shamelessly biased.
J Money: I came up with this question because I’ve long wanted to do a series of polls about Rondale vs Carsen, reminiscent of the “Bo Knows” commercials for those of you old enough to remember them. But it’s so hard because they’re both so amazing. I think I agree with Aneesh’s take that Rondale takes the speed events easily and Carsen takes a number of the brute force events. But knowing what we do about Rondale’s sheer strength, I think I’ll tilt the shot put and discus his way and pick him as the winner. (My polls will include things like ballroom dancing, bowling, pool, etc.)
Michael: Rondale actually. Although I would pay cold hard American dollars to watch that.
