BS 2018 Football Season Preview Roundtable Thoughts
(Photo courtesy of @SadlerImages)
We’re almost there, fam. It’s the eve of the season and so let’s sit down with three of the olds to hear what they think about the upcoming season. The questions for the roundtable are as follows…
What element of Purdue football are you most looking forward to seeing?
I will set the over/under on flea flickers at 5.5 this season. Are you going over or under?
Will Purdue score 50 in a game this season?
Assume Brohm hangs around 3-4 more seasons. Does he put Purdue in a Big Ten title game?
What would qualify as a disappointment this season for you?
Give me Purdue's final record this season (including any bowls, BT title games, CFP, etc.).
And away we go.
Dave (zlionsfan):
Most anticipated element: Everything. How can you pick just one? With a coach like Brohm, everything is on the table. I mean, can you honestly say that there's no chance we'll see a double backward pass followed by a drop-kick FG? Each year that he stays means an additional year of working with most of the same players, which means more trickeration, which means more reasons to stay in your seat or near your TV when Purdue has the ball ... or doesn't. You can't quite do the same type of stuff on defense, but given the results the Boilers had on that side of the ball last season, it's reasonable to expect more of the same this year. Is it Thursday yet?
Flea flickers 5.5: Under. That's assuming we only count an actual flea flicker. Number of times we see a play that resembles one: 6+. Since everyone knows Brohm will call both normal and fakes, he'll do more of the same, and since there are multiple ways you can run one, there are multiples of multiple ways you can fake one. How about a reverse fake flea flicker tunnel screen? A fake flea flicker triple reverse? (One of those ought to be buried - even true* double reverses are hard to pull off - but Purdue is more likely than most to be able to manage this one.) A fake flea flicker hidden-ball TE draw?
*there are still too many announcers who think that jet motion = reverse; a reverse is when the ball is already moving in one direction and reverses, thus the name, but seeing it live gets your Crazy Play Brain going I guess, plus who doesn't want to see a double reverse? A 340-pound DT, that's who. [J: Dave gets it. This drives me crazy. A double reverse is insanely rare and honestly just takes too long behind the line of scrimmage to develop.]
50 points or more: No? Surprising answer, but remember, the Boilers had what looked like a soft non-conference schedule last year, with Missouri and Ohio as the centerpiece, except both the Tigers and Bobcats proved to be much better than expected. Illinois was easily the Good Guys' worst opponent, and Purdue didn't break 30 against them. Eastern Michigan seems like the obvious opportunity, but I think it's still a bit early in Brohm's tenure. Give him a full roster of his own recruits, and it's a different story. Now, if they end up in a bowl against a Big 12 team...
BT title appearance within 3-4 years? YES. Two years ago, the conference seemed to have an established top tier in both divisions, even if it was unbalanced, with Wisconsin sure to meet UM/MSU/OSU/PSU annually. but the Badgers have been a bit wobbly lately, Michigan State's lawless program has begun to stumble (even if it did recover a bit last year), Michigan hasn't returned to dominance under Harbaugh, PSU may have peaked with the Barkley/McSorley duo, and Ohio State is practically begging what's left of the NCAA to punish it. Elites are easier to resurrect than other schools, mostly because recruits are more than happy to help rebuild those programs, but when the one school most likely to win the conference is also least likely to be eligible to play for it, well, anyone could win it.
It's still an uphill battle, and the West isn't standing pat - Northwestern is expected to challenge Wisconsin, and Scott Frost is the newest entry in the list of Nebraska head coaches expected to go 15 and -1 in his second season - but this point in time is as good as any, and a Purdue team stocked with Brohm recruits should have the best chance in school history to win an outright title. (Reminder: 1929. Football was quite different back then, so the next one might as well be the first one.)
What would disappoint? Fewer than 4 wins. Yeah, that sounds pretty low, but remember, Purdue's schedule has been steadily improving. Gone is the annual I-AA opponent; while Eastern Michigan is likely to be bad, they do return a number of starters, and other than Illinois, everyone else on the schedule should be no less than a challenge. Setting the Eagles aside, four of Purdue's five easiest opponents are on the road (Nebraska, Illinois, Minnesota, Indiana, with Missouri the one at home). A significant part of the defensive resurgence was from one-season JUCOs and grad transfers. A lot of factors suggest regression toward the mean; this could be one of those seasons where the Boilers play better but have fewer wins to show for it, which means more posts from me trying to explain why you shouldn't be mad yet. As long as Purdue shows something against everyone, I'm fine with a worse record this year. If it were easy to fix programs in one or two seasons, it wouldn't be a big deal when it happens.
Purdue's final record: 7-6. If they surprise the Wildcats in their old-school Big Tenteen opener*, I'm going to look a little smarter. Otherwise, they'll have to flip at least one game to get the 7-5 regular-season mark I'm predicting. They won't be as fortunate in their bowl matchup this time, as Paul Johnson's triple option will be a bit more than the young defense can handle and a loss to Georgia Tech ends their season even with their 2017 win total. (If networks aren't excited about triple option vs. Brohmball, they shouldn't be showing college football.)
*back in the days of antiquity, the Big Ten stuck a conference game in the first or second week for pretty much everyone, then played their three non-cons and switched back to conference play for the duration. This sounded great, but in practice didn't go so well: for example, 1981, when Michigan came off a 10-2 season and Rose Bowl win (one of only two under Bo) only to drop their opener to unranked Wisconsin, 21-14. Adding to the craziness, everyone played nine conference games except for Iowa and Ohio State, reportedly because the Hawkeyes were required to play Iowa State that season, and in those days one didn't simply drop non-conference opponents to free up space. OSU and Iowa finished 6-2, each defeating 6-3 Michigan in Ann Arbor. Iowa got thumped 28-0 in the Rose Bowl while OSU beat Navy in the Liberty Bowl. Yep, Big Ten co-champions in the Liberty Bowl, a direct result of the conference's Rose-or-nothing philosophy that had only recently been changed. OSU and Iowa skipped 1982 as well; when they finally got on the same page in 1983, Illinois ran the table to become the only school in Big Ten history to go 9-0 in conference games.
Boilerdowd:
What element of Purdue football are you most looking forward to seeing?
I'm looking forward to the unexpected elements- whether it's trick plays on offense and STs or the unexpected high level of defensive play, being pleasantly surprised was my favorite aspect of the 2017 season. I don't think anyone really knows what Coach Brohm will have up his sleeve this season...but I want to be there to see it.
I will set the over/under on flea flickers at 5.5 this season. Are you going over or under?
Under...4 or 5. I think the coaching staff will add in new wrinkles.
Will Purdue score 50 in a game this season?
I think they'll cross the half-century mark versus Eastern Michigan. They won't be able to stop either of Purdue's QBs.
Assume Brohm hangs around 3-4 more seasons. Does he put Purdue in a Big Ten title game?
If he's only staying for 3-4 years, he needs to do it in the next two seasons. Nebraska will soon be the Beast of the West...and I don't see any signs of Wisconsin losing steam.
What would qualify as a disappointment this season for you?
Five or fewer wins with no bowl is a definite step back and would be pretty disappointing for me.
Give me Purdue's final record this season (including any bowls, BT title games, CFP, etc.).
8-5 with a win over an interim-coached LSU team...Shortly after, rumors of Brohm to LSU begin. 😞
J Money:
What element of Purdue football are you most looking forward to seeing?
An offense that Brohm trusts a bit more to run his stuff, with a guy like Rondale Moore in the mix. I love having Jared Sparks, a former QB, at WR – it just begs for trickery. Purdue will never be truly out of a game, evoking memories of the early 2000s.
I will set the over/under on flea flickers at 5.5 this season. Are you going over or under?
I’ll take the over. This would mean one ever other game and assuming one or two games have two, I think it’s possible.
Will Purdue score 50 in a game this season?
I think they’ll get into the 40s but I’ll say that unless EMU is really bad, 50 won’t happen.
Assume Brohm hangs around 3-4 more seasons. Does he put Purdue in a Big Ten title game?
I would say yes. Given what we say Coach Brohm do in his first season, continuing that trajectory would mean some big things by year four.
What would qualify as a disappointment this season for you?
Not matching last season’s seven wins would be a letdown to me. But if they make a bowl and it’s a good bowl against a good program, then – against this schedule – that’s a good second year and sets us up for a hellaciously fun 2019.
Give me Purdue's final record this season (including any bowls, BT title games, CFP, etc.).
Come on, you’ve seen me demand a ten-win season earlier this year. My point then wasn’t that this schedule was easy or that this team was already equipped to do huge things – it was that perhaps we should already push our chips into the middle of the table and await some good cards. Expect some good cards. Losses to MSU, OSU and Wisconsin are the only thing keeping Purdue from a massive year. They go 9-3 in the regular season, win their bowl and hit the ten-win mark. Yes, I’m drunk, why do you ask?
