Bucket List – The IU Predicto
It’s Thanksgiving week and not only did Notre Dame football have their name besmirched by an academic dishonesty issue, but Indiana basketball lost to IPFW last night. It truly is a week for giving thanks.
Sadly, though, the week concludes with what will likely be Purdue’s fourth consecutive Bucket loss, something that hasn’t happened since Dave was a young man. It’s actually one of my favorite CFB weeks, though, because of all the amazing rivalry games. I just long for a time when the Bucket game actually matters. I mean, it matters for IU since they’re going to bowl eligibility and because they’re getting a chance to kick Purdue while the Boilers are down – which they absolutely should. Purdue has done that to IU for basically ever.
All season, the Predicto has sought to offer you a distraction from the actual football game being discussed by combining it with a “BS Off-Topic.” This week, though, since football season is mercifully coming to an end, we’ll have each BS’er answer the following questions:
1) How long until Purdue is back in a bowl game?
2) Will Purdue reach the Big Ten Championship Game in the next ten years?
3) Do both Markell Jones and David Blough finish their college careers as Boilermakers?
4) If you're forced to make a wager, who is the next coach of Purdue?
It’s a dark timeline, my friends. But stay with us, because brighter times may be ahead. The word we’re hearing is that Purdue will be naming their next head football coach by the weekend.
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Dave:
1. Depends on the bowl. If you mean literally, i.e. any bowl for which Bobinski will accept an invitation, then I'll say 2019. If you mean a bowl people are actually interested in going to, 2021.
2. No.
3. Unlikely - as grad transfers become more and more common, they can serve a number of purposes. One is giving an opportunity for talented players to boost their NFL resumes by getting into an environment that better suits their skill set/playing time needs/whatever. Even if the next coach and coordinators are a good fit for both players, it'll be a while before Purdue is back to being the kind of program that knows it'll keep talented kids for their careers.
4. Obviously there are significant rumors about Skip Holtz, so if you forced me to bet, well, that's my answer. Safe return = safe wager. Besides, if you look at the list of people apparently being considered, unless you believe this is the job Troy Calhoun is actually considering (which of course I don't), it's pretty much got to be Holtz.
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Bucket games are always a big deal in this state - they were when I was a kid at Bloomington North, they were when I was a Purdue student, and they still are today. Outside of the state, you can't throw a screen pass without hitting a rivalry that gets more notice this week: Michigan-Ohio State, Alabama-Auburn, Washington-Washington State (raise your hand if you thought in August that game would determine a Pac-12 division title), and so on. But you might be surprised to learn that IU-Purdue has been played more times than almost all of them: the only rivalry games this week that have been contested more often are Minnesota-Wisconsin (tops in I-A) and, of all things, Oregon-Oregon State (rare because western rivalries generally haven't been played as often).
This will be the 119th meeting between Indiana and Purdue; my records have it as the 8th-most contested rivalry in DI, finally passing Texas and Texas A&M thanks to Steve Patterson being an idiot. (Cal-Stanford played their 119th game last week, which I think is because the Pac-12 is weird.) If you don't take anything else from this weekend, remember that this rivalry has been going on for a long, long time, it's swung back and forth for periods of time, and sometimes the best thing you can do is look back at a point in history and stare at it until the present changes.
Indiana: bucket
Purdue: new coach
J Money:
I’ve said this before but I’ve always loved this week because no matter how we’re feeling about our program, we can usually come together and agree that for this week, we’re all Boilers and there is nothing – nothing – more important than beating that trade school from Bloomington. This was true when Coach Hazell was still the coach and also even when Danny Hope was circling the drain. And it’s definitely true this year as some dedicated seniors and Coach Parker have their final crack at getting that cherished bucket back to its rightful home. Who knows what those animals have been doing to it?
That said, it’ll be a tall order for Purdue to win this game. Not as tall an order as beating Wisconsin would have been, but this game is big for IU. They need it to reach a bowl and one has to wonder if a bowl-less season at this point would spell the end for Kevin Wilson. So on the one hand, they’ll be playing desperate football I would think. On the other hand, Purdue can ruin IU’s season and perhaps end yet another coach’s tenure there. That would be a terrifically fun end to this week.
I just can't see it happening.
IU 42
Purdue 39
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On those questions…
1) How long until Purdue is back in a bowl game?
2) Will Purdue reach the Big Ten Championship Game in the next ten years?
3) Do both Markell Jones and David Blough finish their college careers as Boilermakers?
4) If you're forced to make a wager, who is the next coach of Purdue?
1) I’ll say following the 2018 season to be optimistic. Because it isn’t happening against next year’s brutal slate. If it does, that coach should be signed to a lifetime contract.
2) Optimistically, with the right coach, it actually could happen playing the Big Ten West. But if I’m betting on this I say no.
3) Yes. I’m nervous about this because Markell in particular is the closest thing to an all-conference player that Purdue has on the offensive side of the ball. And the closest they’ve had in a while. Imagine him running behind Wisconsin’s line… mercy.
4) I hope to be wrong, but to me the smart money is on Skip Holtz.
Aneesh:
So, listen. The spread of the Indiana Hoosiers vs Purdue Boilermakers is 21 points. To the Hoosiers. The IU Hoosiers. The Indiana Hoosiers. The crimson and cream football powerhouse. Over the black and gold basketball school in West Lafayette.
IU is gunning for their 6th win and bowl eligibility. IU is gunning for their first four-year Bucket streak since 1944-1947. Nineteen forty seven. 1 9 4 7.
IU is gunning with their typical Kevin Wilson offense (155.5 rushing yards per game seems good), but their strength this year has been defending the passing game. Which is great, because Purdue passes roughly 500 times per game. On paper, this is disastrous for Purdue.
But logic has never played a role in Bucket games. This could be Markell Jones’ high point for the season, attacking IU’s secretly-mediocre front seven. David Blough could play more than two quarters for the first time all season. Replogle could have 8 sacks. Purdue could notch their first (and only) win in the Gerad Parker era. Donald Trump will be the 45th President of the United States, so *anything* can happen in 2016.
But I’ll stick in the realm of reality, and predict that IU wants revenge for 2008’s 62-10 Tiller Finale drubbing in West Lafayette.
Indiana 62
Purdue 17
1. Purdue will make a bowl game after the 2018 season, with “easy” victories possible against Eastern Michigan, Boston College, Illinois, and surprises against Northwestern, Minnesota, and IU.
And if you believe that, I’ve got a plot of land on Mars to sell you.
2. Yes, Purdue makes a Big Ten title game within a decade. Because Drew Brees will come home and fulfill his destiny as head coach in West Lafayette. And because the Big Ten West is bad.
3. Markell Jones finishes his career at Purdue, and has a headline-grabbing senior year. David Blough does not finish his career at Purdue.
4. There are two ways to think about Purdue’s next HC.
The first is that the collective media actually knows what Bobinksi and search firm DHR International is thinking, and it’ll be someone from the list of Les Miles, PJ Fleck, Greg Olson, Troy Calhoun, Craig Bohl, Skip Holtz, or Brock Spack.
OR.
Hear me out.
Nobody knows anything.
I think (again, complete conjecture, no reporting) it’ll be someone outside that group, someone with a recognizable name, someone that DHR will use to sell to its other clients, someone who has Power 5 head coaching experience bidding their time as an assistant coach and desperate for a head coaching opportunity, and someone who could start at Purdue immediately after this weekend’s games.
And if I had to put a name to that description? Lane Kiffin.
B-dowd:
I don't know how our thin Boilers can beat anyone in the B1G outside of Rutgers, at this point...so I'll keep with this idea as I believe IU will leave no doubt on Saturday in Bloomington. IU has only won four-straight bucket games twice before in the long history of the rivalry...according to my findings, they've never won five straight. Sadly, we might be in the middle of an historic run by Wilson's squad.
IU 42
Purdue 24 (21, and the lead in the first half)
The blood letting continues.
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1. To me, it'll greatly depend on whom is hired as the next coach for me to make a guess at when Purdue will return to a bowl game. But, I am still in the camp that believes it's not going to be any of the names that we've heard leaked...If it's Schiano, which is my stab in the dark, I think Purdue will be back in a bowl game in two-three seasons. I hope Niumatuolo was contacted as he could get this Purdue squad to a bowl in a season or two, I believe.
2. No, I actually can't imagine Purdue reaching the B1G championship in the next ten years.
3. I believe Jones will end his career at Purdue...I think we might see Blough go Austin Appleby on us and end up back in the state of Texas for his fifth year...just a guess.
4. Schiano (again)...and I'm saying this because I kind of hope it's not Holtz nor Spack. I don't think those two would be horrible for Purdue in a few seasons, but think they would both be a complete thud with the fanbase. There is a contingent (I'd bet it's around 30%) who are OK with Spack...I'm actually one of those guys who likes the guy and thinks stabilizing the program might be what's best at this point. BUT, the majority of the fanbase and alums really want to see Bobi take a big swing. I don't think those two would at all be viewed as that.
Michael:
When I attended Purdue, the joke was whether IU or Ball State was the tougher opponent. Chanting "Ball State was better" as we ground the Hoosiers to dust was quite enjoyable.
Now, the chasm that exists between our two programs is so great it's hard to comprehend how we even got here. They have talent, a solid coaching staff, momentum...I'd be fairly happy if I were an IU fan, especially given how historically bad their program has been. Purdue is nowhere near that. This is depressing.
IU is going to kick the crap out of us Saturday. Maybe we'll keep it close, maybe the rivalry and the associated passion allows Purdue to keep it respectable. Or maybe IU crams the final stake into the heart of the Hazell era and exorcises years of abuse at the hands of Purdue. Roles have reversed. Hell, even Ball State is better.
IU: 55
Purdue: 13
1. Three years, maybe? I don't know. The roster is SO thin. This isn't a case where a new coach can come in and re-energize an under-utilized roster. There are good pieces here and there, but this is a soup-to-nuts rebuild. Don't get your hopes up.
2. This will be tough. Purdue has a couple years of building in them before they're respectable, and then they have to get over the hump from "respectable" to "good." And that assume coaching staff continuity, which, if this new coach is successful, they'll probably have desirable options to move on. I'll say no.
3. Yes. Unless the new coach is an absolute failure (possible!) they'll stick around.
4. I'm guessing it'll be someone out of left field. Les Miles' agent is working hard to get his name out there, and the college football "media" is just regurgitating the same rumors over and over again, creating this false sense of inevitability about him coming to Purdue, but I don't think there's anything substantive there. Twitter is also running rampant with Skip Holtz, Greg Olson, and Brock Spack rumors (hard pass on all of those, btw). But generally speaking it's a good move to zig whenever Twitter zags, so I'll say that we'll all be surprised whenever the name is announced, hopefully next Monday. Let’s go with PJ Fleck because DON’T LET YOUR DREAMS BE DREAMS.
